Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

Who should win: Probably, The Social Network

Who will win: The Social Network

Barring an upset, this one seems a foregone conclusion.

BEST DIRECTOR NOMINEES: (Black Swan) Darren Aronofsky, (The Fighter) David O. Russell, (The King’s Speech) Tom Hooper, (The Social Network) David Fincher, (True Grit) Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Who should win: Probably, Tom Hooper

Who will win: David Fincher

It’s The Social Networks’ year and this award rarely goes to a director that didn’t direct the Best Picture.

BEST ACTOR NOMINEES: Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”, Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”, Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”, Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”, James Franco in “127 Hours”

Who should win: Probably, Colin Firth

Who will win: Colin Firth

Always a bridesmaid, finally a bride!

BEST ACTRESS NOMINEES: Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”, Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”, Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”, Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”, Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Who should win: Probably, Natalie Portman

Who will win: Natalie Portman

Black Swan is one of the few I have still yet to see but I have a hard time seeing anybody beating Portman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMINEES: Christian Bale in “The Fighter”, John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”, Jeremy Renner in “The Town”, Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”, Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

Who should win: Christian Bale

Who will win: Christian Bale

Would love to give it to John Hawkes but Bale is just so good in everything and his performance makes this film… plus, he’s way overdue.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEES: Amy Adams in “The Fighter”, Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”, Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”, Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”, Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Who should win: Melissa Leo

Who will win: Melissa Leo

Head and shoulders above her competition.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois, “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet, “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich

Who should win: How to Train Your Dragon

Who will win: Toy Story 3

Pretty much a forgone conclusion considering the Best Picture nod!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY NOMINEES: “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh, “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan, “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Who should win: Inception

Who will win: Inception

I think everyone feels like Inception deserves something. This is where it gets it’s due.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY NOMINEES: “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin, “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich,
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, “Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Who should win: Winter’s Bone

Who will win: The Social Network

I think the Academy would normally use this opportunity to award a Best Picture loser like 127 Hours or True Grit or even the Indie darling Winter’s Bone… that is, if Aaron Sorkin wasn’t in the mix.

BEST DOCUMENTARY: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Restrepo, Inside Job, Gasland, Waste Land

Who should win: Restrepo

Who will win: Restrepo

Though keep your eye on Gift Shop as a dark horse to sneak up and steal the win!


  1. sorry Kai, i do love Inception and enjoyed the ride and all, but even i can see its script was a hodge podge of exposition and convenient action-starting: ‘no we cant just die in this dream, weve taken lots of drugs. sorry, i should have told you that earlier in the film when it would have seemed less exciting..’

  2. …the problem with Inception, even though I really loved the film, is that, when you’re dealing with these stories od dreams and unreality, you can invent things as you go. Which sometimes throws me out of the story because I feel cheated when there’s suddenly a bit of new exposition that betrays what has gone before. Some films are totally destroyed because of it. Ones that have worked for me include a lot of David Lynch’s films and Cronenberg’s Existenz because there’s a lot of character depth that you can rely on. Inception probably falls just under my satisfied radar for unrelaity-based movies but makes up for it with its heart-pumping action sequences and great central idea.

    …Good call on Firth for best actor by the way. I’m hoping The King’s Speech spoils the Social Network party.

  3. Good picks here, man. Had some trouble settling on Best Supporting Actress, but I hear ya’ on Leo.

  4. Agree with just about everything except… Michelle Williams should win the Best Actress Oscar. Enough said 🙂

  5. I’m not all that disappointed with the Oscars this year, except no love for Christopher Nolan, or The Town for that matter. However, it doesn’t matter all that much really since The Social Network is practically going to win everything it’s nominated for. Which kind of blows, but hey it really was an amazing piece of work. Can’t wait for the show!

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