2010 OSCAR PICKS

I know it’s a little early but I have some other stuff planned for the pre-Oscar post so I thought I’d go ahead and give my picks now. I figure this way you also have plenty of time to criticize my choices. So, without further ado, I present you with this weeks list: 2010 OSCAR PICKS.

NOTE: These are the picks for who I believe will win. Not necessarily who I think should win.

We’ll focus on the main categories, as fun as Costume Design and the like may be. Here we go:

BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED).

And the Nominees are: District 9, An Education, In The Loop, Precious (based on the novel “Push” by Sapphire), Up in the Air

And the Winner is: JASON REITMAN & SHELDON TURNER (Up in the Air)

The fact that In The Loop (based on a BBC mini-series) was nominated is interesting. Precious could end up a surprise upset, though I think a supporting actress win will be all the kudos the academy ultimately feels it needs to give in order to honor this film. District 9 could take it just because Academy voters want to give that movie something. However, I think they’d rather give something to Ivan Reitman, whom they love, and this is his only real chance of hoisting the trophy. So, I think he gets it.

BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL).

And the Nominees are: The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up

And the Winner is: QUENTIN TARANTINO (Inglorious Basterds)

This is one of the tougher categories to call. Up is throwing me off in all the categories it has popped up in that are typically unusual for an animated feature. If I am wrong, I think The Hurt Locker takes it as a way of honoring a great film and “the little indie that could”. Still, I’ve got to think The Hurt Locker’s script is a little bare bones with minimal dialogue and the majority of this film’s success is due to the way it was shot and acted. Ultimately, I gotta give it to the “King of the Screenplay”. This is hands down his best film since Pulp Fiction… a movie that won him the Oscar 16 years ago.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS.

And the Nominees are: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious)

And the Winner is: MO’NIQUE

A few of these are a lock and this is one of them. It doesn’t hurt that the field is pretty weak. Still, I’ve got to say, I’m not a fan of Mo’Nique. What I do like is when people who have been mulling around the business for years get a shot to show what they’re made of. Mo’Nique did and she delivered. For that alone, she deserves the trophy. Well, that and the fact that she gives one hell of a soul sister acceptance speech. But please, Mo’Nique, do me a favor… shave your legs. Don’t know what was going on at the Globes but DAMN!!!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR.

And the Nominees are: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)

And the Winner is: CHRISTOPH WALTZ

If any of these are a lock, it’s this one. I’d bet my house Waltz takes the trophy home. One great thing about Q.T., like him or not, he knows how to make interesting casting decisions and get the most of the actors he chooses. I didn’t know Waltz before seeing Inglorious Basterds (mainly because he works primarily in Europe) and I almost feel ashamed of that. This man is a master at his craft and deserves to be a working actor here in America. Luckily, when he gets this award, that shouldn’t be a problem for him.

BEST (LEAD) ACTRESS.

And the Nominees are: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

And the Winner is: SANDRA BULLOCK

A few years back we had a monumental moment when Denzel Washington and Halle Berry became the first black actors to take home both of the night’s top acting prizes. The fact that they did it for the roles they had played (in Training Day & Monster’s Ball respectively) was a little odd. Best actor? Dunno. Life time achievement? Probably more accurate. I think this year will have a similar theme. While Bullock was good in The Blind Side, I don’t know if this is a Best Actress role. However, everyone loves Sandra Bullock, and she’s coming off her most successfull year at the box-office financially, after a multi-year hiatus, and I think the Academy will take the opportunity to honor her body of work through this role. I’d say it’s pretty much a lock. Meryl Streep is her only real competition and the Academy has honored her before… and most likely will again… probably next year.

BEST (LEAD) ACTOR.

And the Nominees are: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

And the Winner is: JEFF BRIDGES

And rounding out the life time achievement awards: Jeff Bridges. Now, I’ll admit, I haven’t seen Crazy Heart. I’ve seen clips and he looks very good, don’t get me wrong. Hopefully, his performance as a whole is very deserving. Still, I think he gets it because they want him to have it. Strange thing is if you had told me a few years ago that Morgan Freeman would be nominated for playing Nelson Mandela (the man he was born to play) in a Clint Eastwood film, I would’ve thought he’d be a lock. I’d also like to note that I love Jeremy Renner. My wife and I have been following him since Dahmer, which we loved him in, and watched the up and down his career took. It’s good to see him on top. Luckily, he’s still young and will hopefully be back.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

And the Nominees are: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc., The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsburg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home

And the Winner is: THE COVE

This one’s tough because I haven’t seen them all. Of the 3 I have seen, I’d say The Cove has to be the favorite. The only thing I’m wondering is if it’s similarity to (last year’s winner) Man on Wire will help or hurt it’s chances. It also lacks the magnetic charm that Phillipe Petit brought to Man on Wire. Though it does have a story that pulls a bit more at your heart strings. This one’ll be interesting. Have to wait and see.

ANIMATED FEATURE:

And the Nominees are: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up

And the Winner is: UP

I’ve heard a lot of people raving about Coraline and The Fantastic Mr. Fox. However, just by the mere fact that Up is also nominated for Best Picture, I have a hard time believing it could lose in the Animated category.

DIRECTOR.

And the Nominees are: James Cameron (Avatar), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)

And the Winner is: JAMES CAMERON

It’s kind of weird because Cameron used to be married to Bigelow. Anyhow, I actually think Cameron deserves this one. If you’ve seen any of the making of docs on Avatar, you know the man has pretty much reinvented directing. The tools he used and the scope of this project alone are so mind blowing that anyone who would even attempt to undertake this is deserving. For someone like Cameron, who was so successful at doing it, deserves to win.

BEST PICTURE.

And the Nominees are: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, Up, A Serious Man, Up in the Air

And the Winner is: AVATAR

Hate to say it but it’s going to happen. District 9 and The Hurt Locker were probably my favorite films of the year. However, District 9 isn’t the type of film that wins this award, though it was nice to see it nominated. The Hurt Locker has a slim chance of sneaking an upset. Unfortunately, I just don’t think it will happen. Up, again, is a little scary to see on the list because you never know. However, I think it’s presence is there just to help in the justifying of the format change to 10 nominees, as people will like the idea that an animated feature has a chance to win Best Picture. Though I doubt it will. Tarantino’s flick, I think, has the makings of a Best Picture but, once again, was just released in the wrong year. In the end, I wasn’t a huge fan of Avatar. That may change on a second viewing but for now that’s how I feel. I just thought most of the performances were kind of lack-luster and that it lacked exactly what makes all of Cameron’s other films so great… a good story. Still, last week I argued that it was a crime that Star Wars hadn’t won Best Picture because time had proven what a phenomenon it was. In turn, that proves it was most deserving of the award. Well, with that line of thinking, Avatar has become the highest grossing film of all time (though those numbers are skewed due to elevated 3-d ticket prices and inflation of general ticket prices) and will change the way we watch films from here on out. (3-D TV’s and Blu-Rays are set to hit stores this Summer, you know?) In that regard, I think it’s deserving.

WHAT ABOUT THESE GUYS???

Every year a few people get the shaft when nominations come out. A few just popped into my head that I thought were worth mentioning. First, I think Rian Johnson was very deserving of a Best Original Screenplay nod for his film The Brother’s Bloom. Second, (500) Days of Summer or Star Trek should’ve at least got that 10th nomination for Best Picture. And, finally, the fact that Sharlto Copley’s (District 9) name was left off the Best (Lead) Actor list is a fracking shame!!!

That’s it, ladies and germs. Feel free to comment below, whether you agree or not. I never edit any of the comments… unless you send me Spam. But, hell, I even let some of those through. Remember, this was meant to be an interactive site, as much as I love the sound of my own voice. You can also sign up to get this blog via e-mail at the top of the page. And, as always, if you like this site, TELL A FRIEND!

Check back next Saturday as that is when new posts go up. Until then, Kaiderman out!!!

11 Responses to “2010 OSCAR PICKS”

  1. loudogfotog Says:

    I think your picks are dead on.

  2. yeah, would be a brave person to bet against any of those youve predicted

  3. DAMN YOUR ON IT !! I’ve just seen clips of movie which is crime considering my love for Q.T. , but the part I did see with Christoph Waltz was awweesome! So I hoping you won’t loss the house! :-))

  4. i love me an academy upset, so i hope that this year we have some!! it’s frustrating when categories are easily predictable, because of the trail of wins from previous award ceremonies (i.e. sandra, avatar)

  5. Hate to say it, Sweetie, but this ain’t the year for upsets. In fact it has all the makings for just the opposite!

  6. mcarteratthemovies Says:

    Mo’Nique and Christoph Waltz are about as close to “shoe-ins” as you can get … and I’m not the least bit sorry about that. I fear you may be right about Sandra Bullock, but dear lord I hope not! I like her well enough and she does good work in “The Blind Side,” but there’s just no way she’s better than Gabourey Sidibe or even Meryl Streep, who SHOULD NOT have been nominated for “Julie & Julia.”

    Also, I hope that little voice inside of me saying “‘Avatar’ will win Best Picture!” is just torturing me — visually it’s astounding, but it doesn’t have the emotional heft that “Precious” or “Up in the Air” or “The Hurt Locker” do, or the total-package-fun of “Inglourious Basterds.”

  7. I agree with all your picks except I think Hurt Locker will take best picture, and maybe even director. Also, I really hope Bullock doesn’t win, but sadly she is the front runner.

    • Like I said, it’s who I think will win. Not who I think deserves it. I hope I’m wrong for Best Picture. The Hurt Locker was the best film I saw this year. Though I think Cameron deserves Best Director.

  8. Kudos from one brainiac to another. 🙂

  9. I second that…I hope Bullock doesn’t win….but also, that Cameron doesn’t either as I’ll never forgive him for the awful awful titanic….

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